Figure 1
Timeline of High-Speed Rail Development
A timeline of high-speed rail development that starts in nineteen ninety-six and ends in twenty thirty-three. In 1996, Senate Bill 1420, otherwise known as the High-Speed Rail Act, forms the High-Speed Rail Authority. In the year 2000, the Authority releases its first business plan. Proposition 1A passes in 2008 and authorizes 9.95 billion dollars in general obligation bonds. In 2010, the Authority is awarded a 2.6 billion dollar federal American Recovery and Reinvestment Act grant. In 2012, the Authority releases a business plan that introduces blending between San Francisco and San Jose and plans to have initial construction connect the Central Valley to Los Angeles. A year later, in 2013, the Authority executes its first construction contract for work in the Central Valley and in 2015, Central Valley construction officially breaks ground. In 2016, the Authority releases another business plan that focuses on finishing the Valley-to-Valley segment in Northern California first. In the Authority's business plan released in 2018, the plan shows construction overruns and other cost increases, which raise the overall system cost estimate to 77.3 billion dollars. Twenty-twenty was the Authority's initial target completion date for Central Valley construction, based on the current contract at the time, however the Authority later revises the completion date to March of 2022, based on projected contract changes. December of 2020 is the Federal Recovery Act deadline for Central Valley construction, per the grant agreement. Twenty-twenty seven is the Authority's potential start of high-speed rail operations between Madera and Bakersfield and, separately, between San Francisco and Gilroy. The Authority's planned completion date of the Valley-to-Valley line with service between San Francisco and Bakersfield is twenty twenty-nine. The last date on the timeline, twenty thirty-three is the assumed completion of the Phase 1 system, extending the line south to Anaheim.
Figure 2
The Authority's System Plans for Phase 1 Have Evolved Over Time
Four maps showing how shared infrastructure, called blending, has increased over time. The first map from the year 2000 does not show any blending. The next map from 2012 shows blending between San Francisco and San Jose. The third map from 2016 shows additional blending between Burbank and Los Angeles. The fourth map from 2018 shows extended blending south from San Jose to Gilroy.
Figure 3
The Authority Has Secured Funding to Finish Construction in the Central Valley, but Not the Rest of the System
A bar chart with two bars. One bar shows funding that the Authority has already secured, 12.7 billion dollars total from Proposition 1A bonds and federal grants, as well as unsecured future funding that the Authority expects to receive for the Valley-to-Valley portion of the project, a total of 15.6 billion dollars from future cap-and-trade revenue and financing of that revenue. The cost bar shows a total cost of 77.3 billion dollars for phase 1, which includes 10.6 billion dollar cost for the Central Valley, 18.9 billion dollar cost for San Francisco to Bakersfield portion, and a 47.8 billion dollar remaining cost for San Francisco to Anaheim.
Figure 4
Current Construction Projects Are Between Madera and Bakersfield
A map showing the high-speed rail route between Madera and Shafter, broken up into three projects. Project 1 spans from Madera to South of Fresno. Project 2/3 spans from South of Fresno to North of Kings County Line. Project 4 spans from North of Kings County Line to Shafter, which is North of Bakersfield.
Figure 5
The Authority Has Adopted Blending in Three Segments
A map showing that the Authority has adopted blending in three segments: San Francisco to San Jose, San Jose to Gilroy, and Burbank to Los Angeles. Adjacent to the map are three text boxes showing the difference between the Authority's original plan for the segment and its current plan including blended infrastructure. The San Francisco to San Jose text box shows the original plan of a shared corridor between high speed rail and Caltrain with 12 high speed rail trains per hour in each direction and a 125 mile per hour speed limit. The blended infrastructure portion of this text box shows shared tracks with Caltrain with 4 trains per hours and a 110 mile per hour speed limit. The second text box, San Jose to Gilroy portion, shows the original plan of a dedicated viaduct with 12 high speed rail trains per hour in each directions and a 220 mile per hour speed limit. The blended infrastructure portion of this text box shows shared tracks with Caltrain with an undetermined amount of trains per hour and a 110 mile per hour speed limit. The third text box, Burbank to Los Angeles, shows the original plan of a dedicated viaduct or tunnel with 12 high speed rail trains per hour in each direction and a 160 mile per hour speed limit. The blended portion of this text box shows shared tracks with Metrolink with 12 trains per hour, and a 125 mile per hour speed limit.
Figure 6
The Authority's Three Current Construction Projects Have Been Phased In but Share a Deadline
A map showing the high-speed rail route and construction timeline for all of the construction projects, one through four. The construction timeline starts with the signed Recovery Act grant in 2010. Project 1, which spans Madera to South of Fresno, was executed in 2013. Its original end date was 2018 and was subsequently amended to 2020. Project 2/3, which spans South of Fresno to North of Kings County Line, was executed in 2015. Its original end date was 2019 but was revised to March of 2022. Project 4, which spans North of Kings County Line to Shafter, North of Bakersfield, was executed in 2016 and is still expended to end in 2019. The timeline also shows the Recovery Act deadline of December 2022.
Figure 7
The Authority's Change Orders Have Increased the Cost and Length of Its Construction Contracts
There are three text boxes showing how the cost and schedule for the Authority's construction contracts for all three projects have changed due to change orders. Box 1 shows the original cost, 2.5 billion dollars, and original completion date, June 2019, of the construction contracts for all three projects. Box 2 shows how change orders, 78 percent of which the Authority directed, increased the cost by 600 million dollars and delayed the schedule by 11 months. Box three shows the sum of the original cost plus the additional change order cost, a total of 3.1 billion dollars, as well as the current completion date of May 2020.
Figure 8
The Authority Must Double the Rate of the Central Valley Construction to Meet the Federal Deadline
A line graph that demonstrates the relationship between construction costs, on the y axis, and the amount of time in years, on the x axis, that correspond with how long it will take the Authority to finish construction if it continues at planned, current, or increased rates. There are 4 lines: planned, actual, required, and current rates of construction. The planned line demonstrates an anticipated total cost of 4.7 billion dollars and an end date of December 2022, which is the federal grant deadline. The actual costs line splits into two lines to show the required rate if the Authority plans to meet the federal deadline and the rate if the Authority continues at its current pace. The current rate line maintains an anticipated total cost of 4.7 billion dollars but extends to the year 2026.
Figure 9
Contract Managers Cannot Demonstrate That They Are Completing Tasks Required to Control Costs and Ensure Value
A bar chart which shows that while Contract Managers are able to provide documentation to demonstrate that they are reviewing invoices for 95 percent of their tasks, they were only able to demonstrate that for 38 percent of their tasks, they are ensuring that costs are allowable. Similarly, Contract Managers could only provide documentation demonstrating that they are evaluating deliverables for 14 percent of their tasks, and assessing performance and amendments, for only 4 percent of their tasks.